Bitcoin price prediction: $200K within reach once BTC clears overbought hurdle – CoinJournal

• Bitcoin (BTC) must clear the $120,000 resistance to resume upward momentum.
• $200K in 2025 is unlikely without stronger volume support.
• Long-term outlook remains bullish despite short-term hurdles.

Despite recent pullback after hitting a new all-time high, Bitcoin price predictions remain bullish amid a mix of political support, institutional interest, and speculative whale activity.

However, Bitcoin (BTC) will have to overcome the short-term resistance levels and overbought conditions that have temporarily capped its upward momentum.

BTC faces a key resistance hurdle at $120,000

At press time, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $118,584 after hitting a recent high of $122,838 on July 14.

And while it is still 77% up over the past year, momentum has slowed in recent sessions.

Notably, the pullback can be attributed to Bitcoin attempting to offload overbought signals on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), especially after repeated rejection at the $120,000 level.

Technical data reveals that the BTC/USDT pair is facing stiff resistance near this psychological threshold, where previous rallies have faltered.

Despite this, the price remains comfortably above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which continues to serve as a dynamic support.

As long as Bitcoin maintains this position, the broader bullish trend remains intact.

Futures market signals continued consolidation

The Bitcoin Futures, Jul-2025 (BTC=F) mirrors the spot market’s hesitation.

Notably, the Bitcoin Futures’ price action, as evident on Yahoo Finance, remains locked between key pivots ($123,875 on the high end and $115,340 below).

The central pivot point of $120,615 has become a battleground, with neither bulls nor bears showing dominance.

A breakout above $126,015, which aligns with the upper channel trendline, could spark renewed buying interest and potentially send prices toward the $129,000–$132,000 range.

On the flip side, failure to reclaim $120,615 could expose the contract to a retracement toward $115,340, with downside risk extending to $112,000 if support breaks.

Volume profile data supports this indecisiveness. Most of the recent trading activity has clustered between $118,000 and $122,000, highlighting this zone as a significant liquidity area.

For any breakout to sustain, a corresponding uptick in volume must accompany it — something that has yet to materialise.

Whales stir, but caution remains

Fueling speculation further, a long-dormant Bitcoin whale recently moved 10,606 BTC, worth approximately $1.3 billion.

HUGE $BTC MOVEMENT — Dormant Whale Wakes Up and Transfers 10,606 BTC ($1.26B)

Be alert — major Bitcoin movement detected.

In the past 5 hours, three wallets, likely controlled by the same long-term whale, have collectively transferred 10,606 BTC — worth around $1.26 billion —… pic.twitter.com/UltvrUPlPn

— EyeOnChain (@EyeOnChain) July 23, 2025

This reactivation, after years of inactivity, has raised questions about the whale’s intentions—be it profit-taking, institutional over-the-counter (OTC) deal prep, or strategic reallocation.

Such large-scale movements often impact market sentiment, particularly when they occur near price peaks.

If these funds are moved to exchanges, the threat of a large selloff increases.

Conversely, if transferred to cold storage, it may indicate confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. For now, the market remains watchful, not reactive.

Macro and political tailwinds support BTC’s growth

External forces are also adding fuel to Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

Trump Media and Technology Group recently acquired nearly $2 billion worth of Bitcoin using proceeds from stock sales and bonds.

This move coincides with increased US legislative support for crypto, including the passage of the GENIUS stablecoin bill and proposals for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Moreover, Bitcoin-backed borrowing is gaining traction. Xapo’s BTC-collateralised lending product recorded a 24% increase in Q2 usage, particularly in Europe and Latin America.

This trend suggests that holders are increasingly seeking liquidity solutions without having to sell their BTC, a dynamic that could reduce short-term selling pressure.

The $200k Bitcoin price prediction

Despite short-term hurdles, several analysts believe Bitcoin remains on a long-term path toward $200,000—just not in 2025.

Glassnode lead analyst James Check, in a recent interview with Pahueg at Less Noise More Signal, stated that while hitting $200,000 by year-end is “very improbable” due to insufficient buying volume, he fully expects BTC to exceed that mark within five years.

His outlook reflects broader sentiment: without follow-through volume, even strong rallies risk unravelling.

Others, including Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Bernstein Research, maintain bullish 2025 targets based on anticipated institutional demand and the growing influence of Bitcoin ETFs.

However, analysts emphasise that BTC must first stabilise above $130K, $140K, and eventually $150K to credibly approach the $200K zone.

These milestones represent both technical and psychological resistance levels.