Jobs Stall: July Payroll Gain Just 73K | SchiffGold

The summer labor market is losing momentum. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said Friday that non-farm payrolls grew by only 73,000 in July, barely budging overall employment since April and capping two straight months of sharp downward revisions. The headline unemployment rate stayed at 4.2 percent—on paper a healthy figure—yet a closer look shows 7.2 million Americans still out of work and a swelling share stuck there for half a year or longer. Meanwhile, gold briefly pierced $3,309 per ounce on Thursday, underscoring how investors increasingly hedge against a wobbling economy and an ever-expanding money supply.

Earlier optimism about spring hiring has evaporated. May’s payroll gain was revised down to a paltry 19,000, and June’s to just 14,000, leaving the two months a combined 258,000 jobs weaker than initially advertised. Health-care providers added 55,000 positions in July and social-assistance agencies tacked on 18,000, but those gains were offset by a 12,000 decline in federal government employment—now 84,000 below its January peak. The labor-force participation rate held at 62.2 percent, half a point lower than a year ago, while 6.2 million people remained on the sidelines even though they say they want a job.

Pay packets did rise. Average hourly earnings for all private-sector workers climbed 0.3 percent last month to $36.44 and are up 3.9 percent year-over-year. Production and nonsupervisory workers saw the same monthly bump, earning $31.34 on average. Yet with official Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation still hovering in the mid-3 percent range—and many household essentials running hotter—real purchasing power is only treading water. Employers appear to be squeezing more from existing staff: the average workweek inched up to 34.3 hours even as manufacturing overtime slipped to 2.8 hours, hinting at caution on new hiring.

The quality of jobs is also deteriorating. Long-term unemployment surged by 179,000 to 1.8 million and now represents nearly a quarter of all jobless workers. BLS will offer a “preliminary benchmark revision” to payroll counts on September 9, just four days after the August jobs report; recent history suggests those tallies often move lower, not higher. If coming revisions once again slice headline numbers, policymakers banking on a textbook soft landing may find themselves behind the curve—especially with federal deficits and borrowing costs still climbing.

For now, the contrast is stark: a sputtering labor engine on one side and a gleaming metal vault on the other. The divergence serves as a reminder that real assets with no counter-party risk can act as insurance when monetary and fiscal experiments hit their limits. With the next Employment Situation report due September 5, workers and investors alike will be watching whether gold’s ascent proves an early warning signal or merely a glint in an otherwise darkening macro picture.

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