Bitcoin price forecast: BTC price steadies as long-term holder selloff cools – CoinJournal
- Long-term holder (LTH) selloffs cool, easing Bitcoin price selling pressure.
- BTC price holds above $116,817 despite rejection near $122K.
- CPI data may decide the next major BTC price move.
Bitcoin price forecast shows BTC price steadying as long-term holder selloffs cool.
Meanwhile, traders are watching on-chain flows and macro prints for signs of the next directional move.
Long-term holders’ selloff cools
Long-term holders have materially reduced daily sales, and consequently, the market has seen a clear shift toward holding.
According to on-chain data, daily LTH sales slipped below $1 billion in August, after averaging above that threshold in July, and this shift has removed a notable chunk of selling pressure.
Moreover, the reduced flow of coins to exchanges, according to Coinglass, has coincided with renewed accumulation, which in turn supports a calmer BTC price near current range levels.
On-chain evidence points to accumulation
Binary Coin Days Destroyed has dropped toward zero, signalling that older coins are not moving and therefore are being held longer.
Additionally, the Fund Flow Ratio sits at unusually low levels, around 0.057, and this suggests fewer assets are being sent to exchanges.
Consequently, spot market net inflows — including a recent $51 million buy day after a $242 million sell-off on August 10 — reinforce that demand is returning more steadily than before.
Triangle breakout holds, but risks remain
Technically, Bitcoin broke upward from a triangle and remains above the $116,817 breakout threshold, which means momentum is still intact.
However, recent attempts to clear $122,000 ended with a rejection and a “gravestone” doji candlestick, and hence, traders note that the path to a new ATH may not be smooth.
Meanwhile, a CME futures gap near $117K and four-hour 200MA/EMA confluence add short-term technical magnetism that could invite retests before any sustained push higher.
CPI and Fed policy could tilt the scales
Macro catalysts are front and centre because upcoming US CPI figures influence rate-cut expectations and dollar strength.
If core inflation prints higher than expected — for example, near 3.1% — then Fed-cut odds for September would likely decline, and as a result BTC price may face pressure.
Conversely, a softer CPI near 2.9% would boost rate-cut prospects, weaken the dollar, and likely favour renewed upside for crypto and BTC price momentum.
Two plausible paths for Bitcoin traders
On the bullish path, continued LTH holding, steady capital inflows, and a break above recent highs could carry BTC to new discovery above $123,000 and into a $120K–$125K zone.
On the bearish path, a confirmed distribution phase — as some Wyckoff-analysing traders warn — could open a markdown toward the $92K–$95K area, and therefore, traders must respect risk controls.
$BTC | Wyckoff Logic in Play 📊
After a strong Accumulation Phase in March–April confirmed by bullish RSI divergence, BTC entered a powerful Mark-Up phase, reaching new highs.
Currently, price action is showing signs of a Distribution Phase — sideways movement with weakening… pic.twitter.com/PTDoosNnDb
— ZAYK Charts (@ZAYKCharts) August 12, 2025
Thus, momentum and macro prints will decide whether the market grinds higher or re-enters a corrective phase.
Bitcoin price forecast: What traders should watch
Watch whether BTC holds $116,817 and whether exchange inflows remain subdued, because these are immediate signs of supply drying up.
Also, monitor short-term technical confluence at the CME gap near $117K and the reaction to CPI data, since both can trigger quick directional moves.
While sentiment includes bullish voices like the co-founder of PayPal, Peter Thiel, who sees structural undervaluation, traders should remain nimble and factor in both upside targets and downside scenarios.
The current Bitcoin forecast balances improved on-chain accumulation against near-term macro risk, and this equilibrium shapes the prevailing BTC price outlook.
